Trump Promised a Short War. The Signs Suggest Otherwise.

When military campaigns begin with declarations of overwhelming force and promises of rapid victory, history suggests caution. President Donald Trump launched the US-Israeli offensive against Iran with exactly such confidence, demanding unconditional surrender and suggesting that Iran’s government would rapidly collapse under the pressure of American and Israeli firepower. Seven days in, Iran’s government is still standing, its military is still fighting, and the defense secretary has promised that the most intense phase of the campaign is still to come.
The military operations of the past week have been formidable. American B-2 stealth bombers have struck Iran’s buried missile infrastructure with dozens of 2,000-pound penetrating munitions. A large Iranian naval vessel has been hit and possibly destroyed. Israel has issued mass evacuation orders in Lebanon covering over one million people and struck Hezbollah’s command infrastructure across Beirut. The IDF chief has promised undisclosed new phases. The defense secretary has promised a dramatic surge in US firepower.
But the indicators of imminent Iranian collapse are absent. The Revolutionary Guards have not broken. Senior officials have not defected. The leadership council has met to plan succession, not surrender. Friday prayers in Tehran drew enormous, emotional crowds. Iranian state television is broadcasting defiance. The government’s internet restrictions have limited both information about the extent of the damage and the reach of Trump’s appeals to ordinary Iranians. Nothing in the public record suggests that the regime is close to the collapse Trump is counting on.
The historical precedents for rapid regime collapse under aerial bombardment are limited. Serbia capitulated to NATO bombing in 1999, but it is a far smaller country than Iran, with a far less ideologically committed government and military. Iraq’s government collapsed in 2003, but under a combined air and ground campaign with massive international coalition backing. Iran in 2025 more closely resembles North Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s — a country whose government has deep roots, genuine popular support, and extraordinary resilience under military pressure.
Trump has promised that the dramatic surge in US firepower still to come will change the equation. The defense secretary has confirmed it is coming. The IDF chief has promised surprises. Perhaps they will produce the result that the opening week of the campaign has not. But the signs that this war will be short are not visible. The signs that it will be long, costly, and deeply destructive for everyone involved are considerably easier to find.